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Essays on Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics: Market Structure, Sentiment, and Connectedness

Project Description

The proposed dissertation is centered on the following overarching research question: To what extent do cryptocurrency prices respond to risks associated with their underlying technological design?

The first paper of this dissertation explores non-standard financial risks that arise in cryptocurrencies due to their technological design by examining how governance disputes are resolved through hard forking in decentralized blockchains. Specifically, the paper provides insights on the immediate effects on returns, trading volume, and volatility of the main blockchain.

The second paper examines spillover risks between the parent blockchain and successful hard forks over an extended time horizon following these governance disputes. In particular, this paper examines whether governance disputes resolved through technological divergence are sufficient to separate networks or whether they continue to influence each other`s price formation.

The third paper examines the market reactions stemming from the two main mechanisms used to implement planned and coordinated protocol upgrades. More precisely, it focuses on protocol upgrades implemented through hard and soft forks. Finally, the fourth paper examines speculative behavior as a central source of risk, given that many cryptocurrencies are not backed by tangible assets due to their technical design. Concretely, this paper proposes a forward-looking sentiment gauge.

Overall, this proposed dissertation provides insights into crypto-specific risks with implications for improving risk management practices, trading strategies, and policy recommendations.

Understanding Financial Literacy Teaching in East Africa and Greater Europe

Project Description

The dissertation examines financial education for adolescents in East Africa and in Greater Europe. Its starting point are international initiatives such as the EU-OECD competence framework and the UN 2030 Agenda, which emphasize the acquisition of financial competences as a foundation for sustainable action and financial inclusion. The project comprises several sub-studies: first, a bibliometric analysis of the academic reception of the EU-OECD framework, identifying trends, research gaps, and leading actors. In addition, empirical studies in Tanzania evaluate the impact of an NGO-supported school program on financial education for seventh- and eighth-grade students. In this context, culturally, regionally, and socio-demographically appropriate procedures for measuring financial knowledge are proposed and validated. Pre- and post-tests, control groups, and socioeconomic data are used to measure knowledge gains and short-term behavioral changes. Through methodological diversity, international cooperation, and adherence to strict ethical standards when working with minors, the dissertation contributes to the further development of effective financial education strategies in Europe and East Africa.

Standard and Non-standard Monetary Policy Measures in the Age of Decentralized and Centralized Trustworthy Services Claiming their Place in the Financial Markets' Infrastructure

Project Description

Combing blockchain and monetary policy procedures, I investigate the effects of the introduction of decentralized and centralized trustworthy services (e.g., blockchain-based currency) on standard and non-standard monetary policy measures. It is of great interest to me to scrutinize interactions within and from outside of the monetary cycle that result from those innovations. Will transmission channels, time lags and monetary parameters be influenced once decentralized or centralized digital currencies based on trustworthy systems gain significant importance within the financial markets (and how)? And what will be the role, risks and chances of new players and entities entering the playing field of our economic, monetary, and judicial system, for example DAOs (decentralized autonomous organizations)?

Models or experiments used in course of the introduction of other then topical instruments (e.g., repurchase agreements) will be redesigned and used for an assessment of this latest evolutionary stage. I plan on addressing the consequences and chances for wealth management, as well as potential challenges and opportunities for our local financial hub in Liechtenstein.

DAO: new player, new structure – does it make a difference (for monetary policy) and what is it at all? (1-2 letters)

Applicability of standard and nonstandard monetary policy measures after the introduction of central bank digital currencies and other trustworthy systems (1-3 letters)

CBDCs and time lags (1-2 letters)

My first paper will concern decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO) and their positioning in our Liechtenstein financial hub.

Deep and (Un-) Constrained Portfolio Optimization

Project Description

Since its birth in the 1950ies, portfolio optimization has suffered from errors regarding the esti-mation of the input parameters (Michaud, 1989). To overcome the resulting underperformance, recent advances in Machine Learning mitigate the impact of estimation errors by directly opti-mizing portfolio weights from raw input data, e.g., using deep neural networks. However, these initial approaches still lack one important practical aspect by neglecting the (portfolio) weight constraints faced by real world asset management companies (e.g., short sale restrictions, in-dustry exposure limitation, factor exposure targets, diversification requirements, or upper bounds on transaction costs). We strive to improve on existing approaches by allowing for the implementation of such constraints. At the conclusion of this project, in addition to a scientific paper, we plan to provide a software toolbox in R and/or Python that implements our findings.

Participating Institutions

Analysis of the International Tax Architecture and its Impact on Liechtenstein

Project Description

This project aims to analyse the current international tax architecture, focusing on its role in assessing the need for reform and proposing new international tax standards. The growing interest in addressing issues such as the (re)allocation of taxing rights, the taxation of the digital economy, substance as a means of conferring tax residency, and more, has proven to be a catalyst for rethinking the approach to governance in international tax matters. The study examines the governance challenges within this international tax framework and asks whether OECD-led institutions or the newly established United Nations Tax Framework Convention can bring greater fairness and inclusiveness to the decision-making process. A key concern in this regard is whether proposed international initiatives infringe on the sovereignty of countries to regulate their own tax jurisdictions, or whether these standards should be treated as non-binding soft law. Moreover, this project will also explore the representation of developing and low-income countries in the discussion of international tax architecture and argue for their greater involvement in the formulation of new proposals. In addition, the project addresses the challenges associated with the decisions of taxpayers to relocate, highlighting the need for effective implementation of base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) measures and appropriate allocation of taxing rights to jurisdictions where value is created. Furthermore, the project analyses the impact of these international tax initiatives on Liechtenstein, how the country should respond and its potential role in influencing global tax policy decisions, aiming to highlight the increasing role of regional and national concerns for fairness and equity in decision-making processes that respect the interests of all countries, including small but economically significant jurisdictions such as Liechtenstein.

Relevance to Liechtenstein

Liechtenstein, like many European countries, has demonstrated cooperation in adopting and implementing key international tax initiatives, including the exchange of tax information, the elimination of harmful tax practices, and enforcement of the four OECD BEPS Minimum Standards. Despite its proactive engagement with these reforms, Liechtenstein, along with the other European countries, voted against the recent UN Tax Framework Convention proposing a shift of global tax leadership to UN bodies. Nevertheless, Liechtenstein advocates for a more inclusive, effective, and equitable international tax agenda, while emphasizing the importance of preserving the significant progress achieved under the OECD leadership. This research project situates itself within this context, offering a critical evaluation of how international tax developments may impact Liechtenstein and at the same time, how Liechtenstein's approach to global tax governance aligns with broader international trends. By examining Liechtenstein's stance and its implications for regional and global tax policymaking, the project contributes to the understanding of how small but economically significant jurisdictions can navigate complex global tax dynamics.

Scientific, Economic and Societal Impact

Taxation, as a fundamental mechanism of governance, is integral to ensuring societal welfare, facilitating sustainable economic growth, and maintaining the functionality of societal systems. By responding to developments in global tax matters, this project establishes a link between international tax reforms and their region-specific socio-economic implications. The primary objective of this research is to assess the potential outcomes of a new global tax leadership, particularly in the context of ongoing initiatives such as the Global Corporate Minimum Tax and new proposals such as the Global Minimum Wealth Tax. A region-specific analysis of these international tax framework changes is essential for evaluating their implications for societal welfare at jurisdictional level. By addressing these issues, the project aims to provide insights for policymakers, enabling informed decision-making to align national tax systems with evolving global standards while advancing sustainability and societal well-being.

Keywords

Tax co-operation International Tax Architecture

Lost in Translation: How Predictability Turns Into Performance

Project Description

Modern Portfolio Theory outlines a two-step wealth allocation process, yet accurately predicting asset returns and utilizing those predictions effectively remains a challenge. This difficulty stems from a weak link between forecast accuracy and economic value, a topic of debate among researchers. While some researchers question whether returns are predictable at all, others aim to enhance prediction methods by inter alia borrowing techniques from the realm of machine learning. Our study addresses the gap in how to systematically use predictability for better economic outcomes, exploring various investment strategies and assets. By linking return predictability directly to economic performance, we challenge the focus on statistical significance over economic relevance. Our findings suggest that even slight predictability, when strategically applied, can yield substantial economic benefits.

Relevance to Liechtenstein

In 2022, roughly 8600 customers had their combined wealth of CHF 54.2 bn managed by one of the 94 asset managers active in Liechtenstein, which highlights the significance of the asset management industry for the economy of Liechtenstein1. These numbers in combination with the project`s potential to innovate products and services, indicate how by enhancing the asset management industry's offerings, the project directly supports wealth creation, financial security, and the prosperity of society at large.

Scientific, Economic and Societal Impact

Apart from implementing a completely novel approach for measuring and evaluating the accuracy and quality of stock return predictions, the project has a direct impact on the asset management industry in general and that of Liechtenstein in particular. The insights gained from the research project allow, for example, asset managers in Liechtenstein to innovate and improve the services and products they offer. More precisely, a better understanding of how predictability translates into economic performance could result in new investment strategies, advancements in practical portfolio management, more personalized investment solutions as well as improved advisory services.

Keywords

Portfolio Optimisation

Participating Institutions

Reactions to Technological Upgrades in Cryptocurrency Markets

Project Description

How do various technological upgrades in cryptocurrencies affect their price, volatility, and trading volume, and what role does investor attention play in these reactions? A better understanding of these responses will help uncover the underlying technical risks associated with cryptocurrencies. This will be the focus of the proposed research project. The research will concentrate on the two largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, which together constitute around 70% of the market capitalization, and their reactions to technological upgrades. Technological upgrades for Bitcoin can be categorized into hard forks, soft forks, peer services, API/RPC, applications, layer 2 solutions, and sidechains. Similarly, technological upgrades for Ethereum can be divided into hard forks, soft forks, networking, interface (API/RPC), ERC (applications), meta, layer 2 solutions, and sidechains. Reactions to these technology upgrades will be analyzed as response functions around the announcement and implementation dates. Through a multi-horizon analysis of these reactions, ranging from intraday to up to three months, we aim to gain a deeper understanding of cryptocurrency markets, their price dynamics, and long-term stability. This understanding is relevant not only for systematic and fundamental investors but also for regulators concerned with financial market stability.

Relevance to Liechtenstein

The mission of the Liechtenstein Business School is to increase Liechtenstein's competitiveness as a business location - among other things - through effective research. In addition, Liechtenstein publicly acknowledges that it sees great potential in blockchain technology for the economy and the financial sector and wants to actively expand the local token economy. From this university and economic policy orientations of Liechtenstein, the research question and its content design of the present study were derived. Thus, the study incorporates current strategic priorities of Liechtenstein. By brining to light the complex market dynamics of cryptocurrencies and gaining a better understanding of these new innovations for the financial industry, this study holds significant importance for the Principality of Liechtenstein.

Scientific, Economic and Societal Impact

The main goal of this study is to gain a better understanding of how various technology upgrades affect the cryptocurrency markets. By exploring this, we aim to uncover a better understanding of the underlying technical risks for cryptocurrencies, as well as how the underlying technology for a coin might influence the markets reactions. With this project, we build on the current literature, addressing questions that have arisen and shedding light on reactions that have so far been unknown. The results are expected to contribute to the currently scarce academic literature on cryptocurrencies. Additionally, the following research will also help quantify market dynamics for cryptocurrencies, which should improve prediction models. The analysis of short-term reactions is particularly relevant for systematic investors, as insights in this regard can be used for automated trading strategies. Moreover, the additional analysis of long-term effects will add to the context of financial stability and low- to mid-frequency trading strategies. A longer-term analysis should also provide more insight into how to regulate the cryptocurrency market, suggesting that cryptocurrencies should be treated as a technology platform with differing underlying technology and uses. Ideally, this research will add to the current literature by suggesting that continuous technological updates ensure the long-term survival of a cryptocurrency, while also highlighting which specific types of technology updates ensure this survival. These contributions are of interest to market participants, financial institutions, regulators, and researchers in the field of cryptocurrencies.

Keywords

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin

Navigating the Sustainable Finance Landscape: Regulations, Investments and Practices

Project Description

This dissertation project explores the complex field of sustainable finance, focusing on the impact of EU regulations on the financial sector. It consists of three papers. The first paper employs bibliometric methods to analyze how academic research addresses EU regulations on sustainable finance. It identifies key research clusters and highlights how EU policies shape research agendas. The second paper examines the impact of the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) announcement on the stock returns of European companies, analyzing the relationship between ESG practices and stock price resilience. The third paper compares the financial performance and sustainability of investment funds according to Articles 8 and 9 of the SFDR regulation. It investigates whether "dark green" funds (Article 9) exhibit higher financial and sustainability performance than "light green" funds (Article 8).

Project Participants

Employee
Ramon Hörler MSc
- PhD-Student
Research Assistant / PhD Student - Sustainable Finance and Investments
PhD-Student
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Employee
Prof. em. Dr. Marco J. Menichetti
- Supervisor
Professor Emeritus - Liechtenstein Business School
Supervisor
Prof. Dr. Timo Busch
- Co-Supervisor
Co-Supervisor

Sustainability, Prosperity, and Provision

Project Description

As part of a joint research project between the Chair of Sustainable Finance and Investments at the University of Liechtenstein and the prosperity company in Liechtenstein, the potential for integrating impact investing components into equity-based pension provision products was investigated. The project focused on the conceptual framework, regulatory context, and an empirical analysis of sustainable funds (SFDR Articles 8 and 9).
Building on the outcomes of this project, the next phase of research aims to develop a scientific publication that deepens and expands on the key questions identified.

The planned focus areas of this follow-up research include:
  • A nuanced analysis of the mechanisms through which sustainable funds generate impact, particularly by comparing ESG metrics and EU taxonomy indicators;
  • The development and empirical validation of an evaluation model for identifying high-impact funds, taking into account risk, return, and sustainability dimensions;
  • An in-depth examination of regulatory uncertainties and their implications for the classification, credibility, and marketing of impact investing products;
  • The simulation and assessment of investor portfolios with varying sustainability prefer-ences under different market scenarios.

This extended research aims to contribute to the academic foundation of impact investing in the context of private pension provision, while also offering practical insights for financial product development and regulatory frameworks.

Relevance to Liechtenstein

This project contributes to positioning Liechtenstein as an innovative financial hub for sustainable investments. Its findings support the development of credible and regulation-aligned impact investing solutions within the pension provision sector - a field of growing social and economic importance.

By empirically evaluating sustainable funds in terms of cost, risk, and actual impact, the research delivers actionable insights for banks, insurers, and asset managers in Liechtenstein. It also addresses key challenges such as greenwashing risks and regulatory uncertainty surrounding SFDR fund classifications.

The project strengthens the University of Liechtenstein's academic leadership in sustainable finance and promotes knowledge exchange with local financial institutions. It thus directly supports the long-term, sustainable development of Liechtenstein's financial sector in alignment with the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Scientific, Economic and Societal Impact

The project is closely aligned with the University of Liechtenstein's research strategy, particularly its focus on sustainability, finance, and innovation. The project contributes to a deeper understanding of how sustainable finance can be practically implemented in long-term savings and pension systems.

By addressing current challenges in regulatory compliance, transparency, and fund evaluation-especially in the context of SFDR Article 8 and 9 funds-the research advances the university's ambition to produce socially relevant and internationally visible research in the field of Sustainable Finance. The project's applied nature and close cooperation with an industry partner (the prosperity company) also exemplify the university's commitment to transfer-oriented research and regional impact.

Furthermore, the project supports the university's goal of strengthening Liechtenstein as a center for responsible financial innovation and contributes to educating future finance professionals with a deep understanding of sustainability-related investment principles. The planned scientific publication and potential development of a portfolio tool will further cement the university's role as a thought leader in the evolving field of impact investing.

Keywords

Impact investing Sustainable Finance Sustainable Funds SFDR Articles 8 & 9

Exploring the Interplay between ESG Factors, Greenwashing, and Market Dynamics

Project Description

My dissertation examines the complex relationship between corporate sustainability claims and investor response and explores the evolving link between sustainability and corporate finance. As ESG (environmental, social, and governance) factors continue to play an increasingly important role, companies are under increasing pressure to demonstrate their commitment to sustainable practices. However, this landscape also fosters opportunities for greenwashing, where companies misrepresent their sustainability efforts to attract investors or appease stakeholders.

The research examines how investors navigate this complex environment with its changing expectations and potential pitfalls. By analyzing market responses to both genuine and misleading corporate sustainability claims, my work aims to shed light on the credibility of ESG claims, the effectiveness of sustainable finance mechanisms, and the consequences of greenwashing. Recognizing the challenges and potential for manipulation in this evolving field, my research seeks to advance understanding of how sustainability considerations are reshaping investment strategies and driving the transition to more sustainable and resilient financial markets.

Project Participants

Employee
Prof. em. Dr. Marco J. Menichetti
- Supervisor
Professor Emeritus - Liechtenstein Business School
Supervisor
Employee
Sabrina Urban MSc
- PhD-Student
Research Assistant / PhD Student - Sustainable Finance and Investments
PhD-Student
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Employee
Prof. Dr. Dirk Schiereck
- Co-Supervisor
Co-Supervisor
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