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The prices of Futures and the Ukraine war

The prices of Futures and the Ukraine war

Porträt eines lächelnden Mannes in einem dunklen Anzug mit gelber Krawatte, vor einem neutralen Hintergrund.

Prof. Dr. Michael Hanke, together with Prof. Nicole Branger (University of Münster) and Prof. Alex Weissensteiner (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano), published the paper "The information content of wheat derivatives regarding the Ukrainian war" in the Journal of Futures Markets in February.

 

Prices on financial markets reflect the expectations of market participants. These expectations can be extracted from the prices using financial mathematical methods.

 

In the case of the Ukrainian conflict, futures on grain, especially wheat futures, are of particular interest, as both Russia and Ukraine are major global exporters of wheat. In this paper, the authors show how the prices of wheat futures can be used to determine the changing market expectations regarding the likely duration of the conflict over time.

 

With the conclusion of the UN grain agreement, the information content of wheat futures prices shifted away from market expectations regarding the further course of the war and towards market expectations regarding the durability of the grain agreement. The approach used can easily be adapted for future, similar cases.

 

Branger, N., Hanke, M., & Weissensteiner, A. (2024). The information content of wheat derivatives regarding the Ukrainian war. Journal of Futures Markets, 44(3), 420-431. (ABDC_2022: A)

 

Online at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/fut.22475

 

Porträt eines lächelnden Mannes in einem dunklen Anzug mit gelber Krawatte, vor einem neutralen Hintergrund.

Study Trip of the Master's Program in Finance to New York City and Washington, DC

Study Trip of the Master's Program in Finance to New York City and Washington, DC

The annual study trip for the Master of Science in Finance is one of the highlights of the program. This year's trip took the students to the East Coast of the United States.

 

They visited asset managers, banks, the U.S. Capitol, the International Monetary Fund, the Embassy of the Principality of Liechtenstein, and others, focusing on the impact of digital transformation on finance, policy, and their interplay.

 

New York City: Global Financial Center and Cradle of Modern Finance

 

On the first and second days of the trip in New York City, students gained intensive practical insights from major players in finance. Accompanied by Assoc. Prof. Dr. Martin Angerer and Alexander Walch, MSc, visits included BlackRock Inc., LGT Capital Partners, and Deutsche Bank. At the latter, a special focus was placed on the role of science and economic analysis in the daily work of an international major bank. At BlackRock, students received valuable insights into the operations of the world's most significant asset manager. At LGT Capital Partners, they learned about the role a native Liechtenstein financial service provider can play in the USA. Various experts presented their work areas in alternative investments, such as primary, secondary, and direct investment solutions in private equity, venture capital, LGT's in-house fund solutions, and co-investments. Impact and sustainable investments were also discussed as increasingly important investment fields in current times. The group was welcomed by Executive Director Alex Jilla, an investment manager for co-investments, among others. Further executive and associate directors discussed their work areas, and conversations were also held with recently hired employees who shared their career paths from university to a prestigious investment company.

 

During the high-profile company visits, finance master’s students gained a comprehensive insight into potential career fields after graduation. They particularly appreciated the welcoming reception and the opportunity to ask detailed questions. Additionally, excursions to Wall Street and other significant sites in Manhattan highlighted New York's rise as a global financial hub. An evening visit to the One Vanderbilt Summit summarized the impressions, offering a panoramic view of all major financial service providers in New York.

 

Washington, DC: Political Heart of the USA and Bridge between Science and Practice

 

The second part of the study trip involved a change of location to the capital of the United States. On Thursday, the students learned about the history and significance of Congress during a tour through the Capitol led by a staff member of a member of the House of Representatives. They also familiarized themselves with the U.S. American political system and its differences from European democracies, as well as similarities with Liechtenstein, such as the strong role of the people in direct political participation.

 

The next visit was to one of the most prestigious universities, George Washington University, where students were received by Assoc. Prof. Samuel Ledermann. The scientific exchange primarily dealt with sustainable investment solutions and the significance of international affairs in the context of economic development in developing countries. The students were also shown potential career paths in research and teaching, and how possible guest stays as a PhD candidate could be structured. The eventful day concluded with a meeting with Dr. Georg Sparber, the Ambassador of Liechtenstein to the United States. The ambassador first contextualized current global political events, outlined Liechtenstein's interests, and highlighted the importance of Liechtenstein's involvement in various international bodies for securing sovereignty and promoting economic development. He particularly noted the economic significance of the U.S. as Liechtenstein's second most important export destination, especially in light of the upcoming presidential elections, before the evening ended with an apéritif.

 

The final day of the study trip aimed to complete the picture of Washington as a political center. In a meeting room of the Capitol, a lively discussion with lobbyist Andy Bopp, whose daily work involves encounters with Senators and Representatives of Congress and their staff, explored the significance and role of lobbying. Ethical boundaries and risks were discussed, as well as the necessity for all interest groups to participate in the legislative process and the role various types of lobbyists can play. Like all other appointments, there was ample opportunity to ask questions, clarify misunderstandings, and learn new things. Friday concluded with a visit to the International Monetary Fund, where the group was received by a very senior representative, Mr. Marcel Peter, a member of the Executive Board. He represents the Swiss-Polish voting group of the Bretton Woods institutions (IMF and World Bank), which also includes Serbia and various Central Asian states and potentially Liechtenstein in the future. Liechtenstein's application for membership in the International Monetary Fund, as well as the general role and mandate of this institution, were extensively discussed before the study trip concluded in the impressive boardroom of the IMF's Executive Board.

 

Two Teaching Licenses Awarded

Two Teaching Licenses Awarded

Drei Personen stehen vor einer Wand mit dem Logo der Universität Liechtenstein. Zwei von ihnen halten Zertifikate in den Händen.

At the Senate meeting on 3 July 2024, the certification of teaching qualifications and the awarding of a teaching license were fortunately on the agenda twice: Assistant Professor Dr. Sebastian Stöckl was certified as qualified to teach the subject "Economics (Business Administration and Economics)" and awarded the corresponding teaching license. Prof. Dr. Thomas Grisold was awarded the teaching qualification for the subject "Business Administration" and the corresponding teaching license.

 

The Chair of the University Senate, Prof. Dr. Konstantina Papathanasiou, presented the certificates and warmly congratulated them on reaching this important milestone in their academic careers. The habilitation is the highest academic examination that demonstrates outstanding academic and pedagogical aptitude for independent research and teaching in a specific academic field. The teaching qualification also symbolizes the freedom to pursue innovative and critical approaches, as well as the responsibility to impart knowledge with integrity. The University of Liechtenstein wishes both honorees, who were appointed "Privatdozenten (PD)" upon receiving their certificates, every success for their future academic contributions!

 

Drei Personen stehen vor einer Wand mit dem Logo der Universität Liechtenstein. Zwei von ihnen halten Zertifikate in den Händen.

Experts from the University of Liechtenstein at the Vorsorge-Symposium in Zurich

Experts from the University of Liechtenstein at the Vorsorge-Symposium in Zurich

Drei Männer in Anzügen stehen auf einer Bühne mit lila Teppich. Sie lächeln in die Kamera. Im Hintergrund sind schwarze Vorhänge zu sehen.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Martin Angerer and Prof. Dr. Michael Hanke from the University of Liechtenstein took part in the Vorsorge-Symposium at Messe Zürich on June 6, 2024.

 

The Vorsorge-Symposium and the parallel "Fachmesse 2. Säule" offer an important annual opportunity for foundation boards, managing directors and pension fund experts to find out about the latest developments and innovations in the field of occupational pension provision. It is important to the University of Liechtenstein to use its expertise to contribute to further education and the expansion of knowledge in this important area.

 

The two professors spoke on the topic of "Digital assets: can and should pension funds invest?", with Christian Dreyer, CFA, acting as moderator.

 

In his input presentation, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Martin Angerer highlighted the various facets of digital assets, in particular Bitcoin and Ethereum as investments, but also securities tokens and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). He emphasized that digital assets are becoming increasingly important as a yield-generating investment for pension funds, as they can improve the risk-return ratios of pension fund portfolios. Despite this potential, however, there are also significant challenges, such as high market volatility, regulatory uncertainties, reputational concerns and the high energy consumption of crypto mining.

 

As Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Stiftung Personalvorsorge Liechtenstein (Liechtenstein Pension Fund Foundation), Prof. Dr. Michael Hanke represented the practical perspective of a pension fund in particular and complemented the discussion with his well-founded contributions and answers to numerous questions from the audience, which showed great interest and commitment. Together, the two professors from the University of Liechtenstein demonstrated their in-depth expertise and made a significant contribution to the success of the panel.

 

The Pension Symposium 2024 proved to be a great success with around 2,500 guests. It offered pension fund decision-makers a valuable platform for further training and an exchange of current trends. The event underlined the importance of the company-managed "2nd pillar" of pension provision. 

 

Drei Männer in Anzügen stehen auf einer Bühne mit lila Teppich. Sie lächeln in die Kamera. Im Hintergrund sind schwarze Vorhänge zu sehen.

University of Liechtenstein Research Team Presents Innovative Research at the Bank of England

University of Liechtenstein Research Team Presents Innovative Research at the Bank of England

Drei Männer in formeller Kleidung lächeln in die Kamera. Sie sind Teil eines Forschungsteams der Universität Liechtenstein, das maschinelles Lernen zur Vorhersage von Finanzkrisen untersucht.

Professor Michael Hanke and Merlin Bartel from the University of Liechtenstein and Sebastian Petric from LGT Bank AG presented their latest research entitled "Crisis Identification and Prediction using Machine Learning: The Case of U.S. Regional Banks" at the Bank of England.

 

In their innovative study, the team develops a machine learning approach to identify and predict financial crises, particularly those of regional banks in the US. The research emphasizes the importance of early detection of crises, as they have a significant impact on the economy and society. The developed approach combines various machine learning methods such as clustering, ridge regression, and sequential feature selection to detect and predict crises.


Notably, the predictions can be used to minimize risk during negative market phases, leading to improved risk-adjusted returns compared to traditional investment strategies.
This research provides investors and policy makers with valuable tools to react early to impending financial crises.

 

Drei Männer in formeller Kleidung lächeln in die Kamera. Sie sind Teil eines Forschungsteams der Universität Liechtenstein, das maschinelles Lernen zur Vorhersage von Finanzkrisen untersucht.

Congratulations to Marius Gramlich on his Doctorate with Top Marks

Congratulations to Marius Gramlich on his Doctorate with Top Marks

Foto von Marius Gramlich, umgeben von seinen Betreuern und Doktoratskolegen zur Feier seiner erfolgreichen Dissertation an der Universität Liechtenstein.

The University of Liechtenstein would like to congratulate Marius Gramlich on the successful defense of his dissertation with the highest distinction. The thesis entitled “Tokenomics on Crypto Exchanges and Experimental Asset Markets” was supervised by Prof. Dr. Martin Angerer and Prof. Dr. Fabian Schär from the University of Basel. They collaborated with Spiridon Penev (University of Sydney) and Yilong Xu (Utrecht University) – a successful example of the University of Liechtenstein's international research cooperation with leading partner institutions and researchers.

 

Marius Gramlich's dissertation is dedicated to the financial and economic facets of the token economy on crypto exchanges and experimental capital markets. The studies focus on trader behavior, market design and the efficiency of the markets, particularly with regard to their liquidity.

 

The dissertation includes innovative methodologies to measure the unit of account (as a function of money) and liquidity in crypto markets as well as the impact of fractionalization of assets through tokenization. The results provide new insights into the token economy with relevance for traders, market operators and regulators.

 

The research has already been presented at numerous international conferences and has been well received by the scientific community. The first of the three studies was published in the "Journal of Risk and Financial Management” at the beginning of the year.

 

We would like to congratulate Marius Gramlich on this outstanding success and wish him all the best for his professional and personal future!

 

Wir gratulieren Marius Gramlich herzlich zu diesem herausragenden Erfolg und wünschen ihm für seine berufliche und persönliche Zukunft alles Gute!

Foto von Marius Gramlich, umgeben von seinen Betreuern und Doktoratskolegen zur Feier seiner erfolgreichen Dissertation an der Universität Liechtenstein.
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